China’s automotive industry maintained steady growth in 2024. Both automobile production and sales have surpassed the 31-million-vehicle mark. The explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market has become the biggest bright spot, with the annual production and sales scale exceeding 10 million vehicles. China has become the first country in the world to achieve an annual output of 10 million new energy vehicles.
In automobile manufacturing, more than 95% of parts rely on mold forming, from body panels to precision electronic components, molds run through the entire life cycle of the product. The vigorous development of the automobile industry has brought huge market demand for the mold industry. At the same time, the mold industry will also meet the new opportunities brought by new energy vehicles and intelligent manufacturing through technological innovation and industrial cluster effect.
According to the latest data from China Mould Industry Association, as the largest market segment in the mould industry, the proportion of automobile moulds is as high as 46.5. The data show that the scale of China's automobile mould industry has exceeded 200 billion yuan. With the increase of penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the market scale is expected to exceed 250 billion yuan in 2025, with the demand for integrated die casting moulds and battery box moulds growing by more than 20%. This industrial change triggered by the "small mold" will continue to rewrite the future picture of global automobile manufacturing.
Industry scale, continue to expand
The design and manufacturing time of automobile stamping dies accounts for about 2/3 of the automobile development cycle, and is the largest segment of automobile dies. In 2022, the market size of China's automobile stamping dies will reach 44.19 billion billion yuan, up 5.16 percent year-on-year, accounting for 40.77 percent of the overall size of the automobile die industry. In 2023, China's automobile stamping die market has reached 47.52 billion yuan and reached 24.02 billion yuan in the first half of 2024. This growth directly led to the rapid increase in demand for automotive molds.
On the supply side, the output of China's automotive stamping die industry reached 170300 standard sets in 2023 and 85900 standard sets in the first half of 2024. The scale of demand also showed a steady increase, with sales of automotive stamping dies reaching 171900 standard sets in 2023 and 86700 standard sets in the first half of 2024.
regional pattern, cluster development
China's mold industry has initially formed three large-scale agglomeration areas in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Rim, and two medium-sized agglomeration areas in Chengdu, Chongqing and Hubei. The Yangtze River Delta region has concentrated 45% of the country's high-quality steel suppliers, and enterprises such as Baowu Group and Shagang occupy 60% of the market share of high-end die steel. There are 83 engineering plastics modification enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region, with an annual production capacity exceeding 400000 tons.
This cluster development model not only realizes the vertical integration of the industrial chain, but also promotes the overall innovation through the technology spillover effect. The central and western regions are becoming a new growth pole, and the growth rate of transmission mold demand in Wuhan, Chengdu and other places has exceeded the average level of the eastern region for three consecutive years.
Market competition, stratification is obvious
Globally, companies in developed countries such as Japan, the United States, and Germany still have technological advantages in high-end products such as large precision molds and composite molds. The world's leading automotive mold companies include Japan's Fuji Industrial Technology and Miyazu Manufacturing Institute, Italy's Comau (COMAU), Germany's Argyle Machinery Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (ALLGAIER), etc.
Most of China's automobile mold production enterprises are small and medium-sized enterprises, the industry concentration is low. Industry-wide enterprises are divided into three categories: mold development enterprises affiliated to large domestic automobile manufacturers, backbone companies in the domestic mold industry, and smaller manufacturers in the industry.
The first type of enterprises include FAW mold, two steam mold, BYD mold, etc., the technical level and production scale in the domestic leading. The second type of enterprises include Tianqi Model, Chengfei Integration, Weitang Industry, Dongguan Zhongtai, Xiangxin Technology, etc., which supply to major vehicle factories or parts enterprises. For automotive stamping dies, the domestic market share is concentrated in the hands of head enterprises such as Ruihu Die, FAW Die and Dongfeng Auto Die, and the industry competition pattern is relatively stable.
Segmented Market, Diversified Demand
The automotive panel mold market is an important part of the automotive mold industry. In 2023, China's automobile stamping die industry market, the market size of automobile panel dies will reach 22.334 billion yuan, and in the first half of 2024, it will reach 11.34 billion yuan.
Stamping molds are mainly used to manufacture metal covers, such as hoods, roofs, trunk covers, etc.; injection molds are mainly used to manufacture plastic covers, such as bumpers, car lights, etc. The manufacture of these molds requires a high level of skill and sophisticated machining equipment. Metal structure mold is also an important market segment. In 2023, China's automobile stamping die industry metal structure mold market size reached 10.93 billion yuan, the first half of 2024 reached 5.478 billion yuan.
With the improvement of consumers' requirements for automobile quality and appearance, the demand for personalized customization of automobile metal structure molds will continue to increase.
New energy vehicles, driving growth
The vigorous development of new energy vehicles brings new opportunities for the mold industry. The large number of applications of lightweight materials (such as aluminum alloy and carbon fiber) in new energy vehicles, as well as the popularity of smart cockpit, have spawned a strong demand for high-end precision molds (such as die-casting molds and injection molds). Tesla Shanghai factory and other head enterprises using the integrated die-casting technology, so that more than 8000 tons of die-casting machine supporting mold has become a new growth point. The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions have gathered 72% of the country's automotive mold suppliers, and the regional market size is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan in 2025.
Technological innovation, intelligent transformation
With the in-depth application of CAD/CAM/CAE integration technology, Internet of Things and big data in the mold design and manufacturing industry, the mold is developing in the direction of digitalization, intelligence, networking and synergy. Intelligent mold will become one of the key development directions of the mold in the future, so that the design process of the mold can be digitized, the processing process can be remotely monitored, and the use process can be used to achieve predictive maintenance and repair. It is expected that the penetration rate of intelligent transmission molds will increase to more than 35% in 2025. In particular, the demand is strongest in the fields of automobile manufacturing, electronic equipment and new energy. 3D printing technology is applied to the manufacture of conformal water-cooled channels, integrated casting sprue sleeves and complex sand molds, which significantly shortens the production cycle of complex molds.
Material innovation, green development
Die steel is one of the largest raw materials for the production of automotive molds. In 2023, die steel prices increased by 7.8 year-on-year, resulting in a 1.2 percentage point drop in the industry's average profit margin. In terms of material application, the unit price of high-strength aluminum alloy molds is 23% higher than that of traditional steel molds, but with the advantages of light weight and corrosion resistance, its market size will increase to 41%.
Environmental policies have a profound impact on the supply chain. The newly implemented "Green Supply Chain Management Specification for Mold Industry" requires all raw material suppliers to pass ISO14001 certification, and the cost of environmental protection transformation in the industry will increase by 12-15% in 2023. The proportion of short-process steelmaking in electric furnaces will increase from 18% in 2020 to 35% in 2023, reducing carbon emissions by 26%. The replacement rate of natural gas in the aluminum alloy smelting process is more than 90%, and the energy consumption per ton of product is reduced to 280kW · h.
Future challenges, transformation and upgrading
Although the automotive mold market prospects, but also faces some competition and challenges. Automotive stamping die market competition is high, mainly by domestic and foreign large mold manufacturers and suppliers to monopolize the market.
. The high-end mold market is still dominated by European, American and Japanese companies, and domestic substitution is accelerating but there is still a gap. In 2023, China's auto mold imports fell 8.7 percent year-on-year, while exports grew 15.3 percent year-on-year.
The mold industry is also facing the problem of shortage of talents and technical bottlenecks. It is necessary to strengthen technological innovation and R & D investment to improve the technical level and product quality. Fluctuations in raw material prices and changes in the international trade environment remain the main challenges facing the industry. Companies need to strengthen cost control and supply chain resilience to cope with market uncertainty. As the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market continues to increase, the demand for high-precision molds such as electric vehicle battery shells, lightweight body parts, and high-voltage connectors will continue to grow. Domestic head enterprises have begun to lay out integrated die-casting, multi-material connection and other cutting-edge areas. In recent years, listed companies such as Tianqi Model and Weitang Industry have increased their R & D investment by more than 20% annually, gradually breaking through foreign technology monopoly.
In the next five years, China's automobile mold industry will usher in a key leap from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change. Industry competition will shift from price war to technology war and innovation war. Those enterprises that master core technology and have rapid response ability will stand out in the new round of industrial transformation.
